Climate change is causing many species to move towards the poles, and in the tropics to move up mountains.

Over 40 years, starting in 1974, Gonville & Caius College Fellow Dr Edmund Tanner and Dr Peter Bellingham, formerly a Research student at Caius and latterly at the University of Auckland, have been studying permanent plots in the forest of the Blue Mountains in Jamaica and have discovered that this upward migration of trees species was increased by a very strong hurricane.

Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 badly damaged the trees but only killed about 13% of them. However, that severe disturbance was enough to increase the rate of change in the composition of the forest. This research has just been published in the journal Ecography in an article “Hurricane disturbance accelerated the thermophilization of a Jamaican montane forest” (Tanner, Bellingham, Healey J.R. (former research student in Darwin, and Feeley K. J collaborator in the USA).

From the start of the project, Dr Tanner has been an associate at the Biology Department of the University of the West Indies, and the project has been supported by the Forestry Department of the Government of Jamaica. Funding has partly come from Caius’ Drummond Fund.

The National Environment and Planning Agency granted permission to carry out the censuses. The Jamaica Conservation and Development Trust helped in many ways, and the various directors of Public Gardens allowed the researchers to be based at Cinchona Botanic Gardens. The work continues, with the next planned census is in 2024.

“It’s been the main work of my career. It’s unique,” says Dr Tanner, pictured.

“Until the Puerto Ricans got hurricanes about five or 10 years ago we were the only group in the world who had pre-hurricane and post-hurricane data. This pre-hurricane information is really useful.

“We know in the Andes of three studies showing that tree species are moving up the mountains, and there’s anecdotal evidence from Colombia that disturbance from cattle increases the chance of trees moving up the mountains.

“We’re the only group with such long-term plots and pre- and post-hurricane data. If the forests are changing, and if you disturb them you’re making more opportunities for new species to come in, and for species to change their relative abundance.

“It is alarming. It’s pretty clear hurricanes will increase in frequency and possibly in intensity, and it’s something that’s already happening.”

Read the full journal article in Ecography and more in The Conversation.